phases
Ben (34)
Kate (35)
Lia (3)
Nuca (1)
Kid 3?
Kid 4?
Kid 5?
Kid 6?
Mom (66)
Dad (65)
Jake (31)
Nick (29)
Jessie (27)
Sydney (7)
expenses
pressure map
financial
health
capacity
legal
existential
◆ milestone│ now┄ hypothetical▒ expensesaccumulationgrowthharvestpressure: ■ low■ medium■ high
about this model

The pressure map shows five dimensions of family system stress, each scored 0𠄲 where 1.0 means "at the limit" and >1.0 means "unsustainable without intervention."

Financial — annual expenses (incl healthcare) ÷ survivor income if Ben dies. Income sources: passive portfolio yield, life insurance (if purchased), trust income, and BTC rollover (only what's needed — rest stays as appreciation reserve). BTC reserve grows at 24% real CAGR. All in today's dollars.

Health — probability that at least one family member has a major health crisis in a given year. Uses SSA actuarial mortality curves as a proxy, with higher rates for ages 70+. Each dependent adds independent risk.

Capacity — hours of daily care obligations ÷ 16 available hours (two parents). Children 0–2 need ~6 hrs/day, 3–5 need ~4 hrs, 6–12 need ~2 hrs, 13–17 need ~1 hr. Aging parents in decline add 2–4 hrs. Score >1.0 means you need paid help.

Legal — fraction of assets unprotected by estate planning (will, trust, life insurance, beneficiary designations, documented crypto access). Starts at 1.0 (fully exposed) and drops as items are completed.

Existential — long-term risks to the BTC stack. Four sub-dimensions: governance (key management across life stages), regulatory (hostile legislation/confiscation), protocol (quantum computing, consensus bugs), key management (loss of keys, backup failures). These risks require structural mitigations.

All values in today's dollars (M2-adjusted, 7%/yr). Life expectancies are actuarial-adjusted for demographics (educated, high-income, non-smoking). Expense base is 3-year trailing average from hledger actuals (per-kid cost delta from Lia and Nuca), with assumptions for school ($25K/kid), college ($50K/kid), and post-COBRA healthcare ($24K/yr).

Endowment model: convert enough BTC into income-producing assets (3% real yield) to cover all expenses from yield alone. Principal is never touched. Remaining BTC stays as growth reserve. Crossover is the first year where BTC value exceeds the required endowment. BTC appreciates at 24% real CAGR (30.87% nominal - 7% M2).

Pressure heatmap models the survivor (bus-factor) scenario: passive yield + insurance + trust + BTC rollover vs expenses if Ben dies. Disability is a separate risk not modeled here.