H-CLOCK4.504🔴 BEAR
Action
Hold STRD + T-bills, earn yield
Next Signal
BUY in ~184 days
~Oct 2026
Rec. STRD %
95%
E[r 12mo]
-50%
Confidence
HIGH
income planning
Set your income target. Expenses from the ledger form the floor. Labor income (salary/consulting) offsets the need for yield-producing assets.
actual expenses
—
trailing 12mo from ledger
labor income
—
salary or consulting
yield needed
—
income target − labor
STRD needed
—
yield needed ÷ STRD yield rate
fund allocation
Three funds: income (cover expenses), growth (long-term appreciation), speculative (high-risk/high-reward). Allocation sliders are linked — they sum to 100%.
income
| asset | target % | μ | σ | yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
growth
| asset | target % | μ | σ | yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
speculative
| asset | target % | μ | σ | yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
model vs actuals
Compare your portfolio model to actual positions from the ledger. Highlights where rebalancing is needed.
| asset | fund | model target | actual | delta | action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
kelly allocation
Optimal allocation via Kelly criterion. Maximizes compound growth by balancing return against volatility drag.
monte carlo simulation
Simulate portfolio performance with stochastic returns. Uses expense projections from your life plan.
terminal P10
—
pessimistic
terminal P50
—
median
terminal P90
—
optimistic
portfolio value — percentile fan
terminal wealth distribution
expense coverage probability